The mourning after

So did y'all see how well I did with my predictions? Not bad, if I say so myself. As for the actual awards, no surprises from this corner except for Ms.Streep's upset. The show itself was so-so. Billy Crystal was a welcome sight [ except for his bloated, rubbery face; he didn't look like himself to me ] but has been funnier. Oh and somebody give Angelina Jolie a cheeseburger and tell her to eat it. With fries. And a shake. The woman looks skeletal!!  In fact this show handed me the fewest laughs in recent times. But the show itself was clocked at a shade over 3 hrs, not bad for these kinds of things: I have sat thru Oscar broadcasts that have lasted 3 hrs 45 minutes. Oy!! So until next year.......

My fearless Oscar forecast

Well well well. It appears to be Oscar season again, that time of year when some of the most paint-by-numbers movies will be recognized as " GREAT ". I use to watch the Oscar's and looked forward to them almost like Christmas. For us movie nuts the Oscar's is our Super Bowl, our World Series, our Stanley Cup. At least that's how I use to feel. Over the past 20-25 years I have come to believe that the awards are a reward for mediocre entertainment. Sometimes I feel the Academy has gotten it right, not always: In 2003 the Academy went for The Pianist in a big way with awards for Actor, Director, Screenplay yet they gave the award for Picture to Chicago. As John Ford said, when his 1935 Irish-based drama The Informer won for these exact same categories yet also lost for Best Picture, " I guess they liked everything but the picture." How does one explain such a thing? One cannot. Is it logical? Certainly not.

As one looks at the backlog of past winners in any of the top eight [ Pic, Actor, Actress, Supp.Actor & Actress, Director, screenplays-adapted/original ] a certain feeling of wtf more than occasionally takes precedent. 1952's Greatest Show on Earth [ which it ain't ] wins Best Picture against High Noon, The Quiet Man, Moulin Rouge, Ivanhoe. High Noon should have been the obvious winner. The biggest shock to me was that Vincente Minnelli's Bad & the Beautiful wasn't up for Picture or Director despite having 6 other noms and winning 5 awards [ Best Actor nom Kirk Douglas the only "loser"] the most of the evening! Yet the Pic winner GSOE didn't even have a screenplay nom! But wft, this was 1952 right? The cinematography for Huston's Moulin Rouge, one the the most beautifully shot films ever, wasn't even nominated in that category. Obviously the Academy didn't know shit from peanut butter. In 1948 The Red Shoes, by consensus one of the most exquisitely film movies EVER didn't get a nom for it's photography either. Yet it got nominated for Best Picture, a very rare thing for a film not from Hollywood in those days, so it is assumed that plenty of Oscar voters saw it. Or did they?

Although I must admit, Oscar sometimes despite all odds, gets it right: 1962's Lawrence of Arabia, 1945's Lost Weekend, 1954's On the Waterfront, 1960's The Apartment, 1943's Casablanca. But for every right there are at least 2 wrongs: George Chakiris over the mighty Montgomery Clift! No fucking way! Clift was an acting God and his performance in Judgement at Nuremberg not only tears your heart out but fucking stomps on it until one is gasping for mercy. Chakiris dances nicely has has an acceptable latin accent. No comparison.

Sometimes Oscar gets a tough decision: 1950's All About Eve vs. Sunset Blvd, 1951's An American In Paris vs. A Streetcar Named Desire & A Place in the Sun, 1941's How Green Was My Valley vs. Citizen Kane & The Maltese Falcon, 1940's Rebecca [ Sir Alfred's only Best Pic winner ] vs. Cukor's Philadelphia Story, Wyler's The Letter & Ford's Grapes Of Wrath and lest not forget that mammoth year 1939 when Gone With The Wind beat out at least 3 great movies: Wizard of Oz, Stagecoach and Mr Smith Goes To Washington! I would hate to see today's Oscar voters choose between these heavyweights among others that year. . Not easy choices and I would say one of these are not really greater than the other. They're all good and deserve a win or place in film history.

So should I care? I use to, but not so much anymore. I'm more philosophical these days. I will watch the Oscar show like I always have every year since 1967 or 68. But the winners and losers [ are there such things ? ] really don't mean as much to me as they use to. Great movies are great movies and will live on despite of having been neglected by Oscar. So to make a long blog entry even longer, here are my predictions for the top 8 categories. Now these are only who I think will win, not who I want or think should win. That would be a blog of a different color.

Best Picture- The Artist
Best Actress- Viola Davis, The Help
Best Actor- Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Best Supporting Actress- Octavia Spencer , The Help
Best Supporting Actor- Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Best Director- Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Best Original Screenplay- Woody Allen, Midnight In Paris
Best Adapted Screenplay- Alexander Payne,Nat Faxon & Jim Rash, The Descendants 


So there they are! Maybe not my personal choices but the ones I think will win. I don't think I will get 100% but I think I will get 6 of 8. Anybody think any different? If so let me know. Leave me a comment, put your own thoughts on the line. Let's see how close I come and discuss again next week after the dust settles.  I would love to hear from all my followers. Both of them:  Good evening.